Vice President Yemi Osinbajo and presidential candidate under the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) platform, and a former governor of Anambra State and presidential candidate under the Democratic Party platform Popular People (PDP), Peter Obi, have emerged as the most preferred presidential candidates in the upcoming general elections in Nigeria scheduled for February 2023.
That’s the result of a survey conducted by Nextier, a multi-skills consultancy, and Data-Tier, a data analytics and digital communications company, and released on Thursday.
The survey aimed to gauge Nigerians’ preferences for a presidential candidate, understand the challenges they would like the next government to address soon, and decipher how ethnic and gender biases would inform the upcoming election.
Of all 467 responses, the preferred presidential candidates were Peter Obi (46%), Yemi Osinbajo (28%), Bola Tinubu (7.5%) and Atiku Abubakar (3%). Preferred vice-presidential candidates were Aminu Tambuwal (28%), Musa Kwankwaso (19%), Peter Obi (16%) and Bukola Saraki (6.9%), Nyesom Wike (6.4%) and Yemi Osinbajo (5.8%). percent).
Assessing responses from a geopolitical dimension, the presidential preference for respondents from southern Nigeria was Peter Obi (51.2%) and Yemi Osinbajo (26.6%). For the position of vice-president, these same respondents preferred Aminu Tambuwal (30.2%), Peter Obi (16.6%) and Musa Kwankwaso (16.6%).
No other contestant scored as high as 10% in either category.
The presidential preferences for respondents from northern Nigeria were Yemi Osinbajo (34.2%), Peter Obi (20%) and Musa Kwankwaso (13.2%). Respondents’ preferences for Vice President were Musa Kwankwaso (32.9%), Aminu Tambuwal (17.1%) and Peter Obi (14.4%). No other contestant scored as high as 10% in either category.
The survey asked the respondent to rank the 15 candidates in their most preferred and least preferred order. Peter Obi and Yemi Osinbajo were the most preferred contestants, while Bola Tinubu and Abubakar Malami were the least preferred contestants.
Analysis of survey responses shows that Nigerians are most concerned about the level of insecurity in the country. Three in ten Nigerians (34.1%) indicated that insecurity is the most critical challenge in the country.
Weak economic growth ranked second (22.1%), while national disunity ranked third (13.92%). Poverty (11.99%) and unemployment (10.28%) were the other critical development issues.
The order of development challenges remained relatively the same when analyzed from a geopolitical perspective.
Respondents were asked to select the top three attributes (from a list of ten) they wanted to see in their next president. The survey report showed that despite Nigeria’s overt religiosity, ‘belief in God’ ranks very low compared to ‘competence’, which is represented on this list by terms such as knowledgeable (17 .9 percent), problem-solving ability (17.4 percent), and capable (16.5 percent). Being “young” received only 3.2% of responses.
What is the influence of ethnicity and religion on the choice of presidential candidates in Nigeria? Would Nigerians vote for a President/Vice President ticket that meets all of their desirable attributes, but both candidates share the same religion? Or same ethnic origins? Regarding religion, while 5.14% of respondents say they would never vote for such a ticket, 58.7% are open to the idea.
Similarly, when it comes to ethnicity, 11.13% of respondents say they would never vote for a ticket where the presidential and vice-presidential candidates are from the same ethnic group. However, 43.7% of respondents are open to the idea.
Almost eight in ten respondents (76%) said that “above all other considerations, I prefer someone who can fix Nigeria, regardless of religion or tribe”.
This idea indicates a growing desire for a functioning country and the citizens’ zeal to thrive and make a difference. It also lends credence to the widespread belief that if people can provide for their daily needs, they will care less about the president’s ethnic or religious leanings.
Is Nigeria ready for a female president, following in the footsteps of Liberia and Malawi? Survey responses are in the affirmative, with more than 86% of respondents saying they would vote for a competent woman.
The most gender progressive regions in Nigeria are South-South and North-Central. 93.4% of South-South respondents would vote for a competent female president, while 97.1% would do the same in the Center-North region.
The least progressive regions are the North West with 57.7% and the North East with 64.3%. It is unclear, however, how this perception would translate to the ballot box.
Nigeria is effectively a two-party state, given the dominance of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
More than 54% of those polled believe the next president is unlikely to come from a party other than the two dominant parties. If the result is anything to go by, it is obvious that the APC or the PDP will produce the next President of Nigeria.
While this should not discourage aspirants on other political platforms, it warrants the attention of Nigerians to the actions and activities of the PDP and APC.
This survey is a gauging analysis that aims to provide insight into the evolution of the Nigerian political space.
Given the lengthy electoral process leading up to the February 2023 elections, significant shifts in perception can be expected.
Nextier and Data-Tier have committed to continue to organize the polls and publish the results until the elections.